Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:15:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8B 0x8b7d…2908 crypto 704 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%675W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day31.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days−$57
14 days−$22
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$9
politics 2% +$9
other 2% +$3
finance 1% −$17
sports 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 326 -1.5% -10.9% 96% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 697 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 697 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 0% -9.7%
all 697 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses675 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)697 / 704
History coverage23d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 697 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,600 on June 28? Jun 29 $15 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 28? Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $29 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $14 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $14 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 28? Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 28? Jun 28 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 28? Jun 28 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 28? Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $14 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 6h
Will Ethereum reach $1,600 on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $9 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.47 · official $150.47 (match) · 1413 history records