Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8b7f…498c crypto 5 markets active 3h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$262 (-48%) realized −$19 · open −$243
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$243
crypto 12% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.6% -6.2% 50% 50% -22.4%
≤30d 4 +3.6% -6.2% 50% 50% -22.4%
≤90d 4 +3.6% -6.2% 50% 50% -22.4%
all 4 +3.6% -6.2% 50% 50% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 50% -22.4%
10% -15.2% 50% -29.8%
15% -23.4% 50% -36.6%
20% -30.9% 50% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$243
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage6d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $447 $204 −$243 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$10 +64%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $16 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $380 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $26 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $16 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 36h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 36h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.06 · official $204.06 (match) · 16 history records