Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:20:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b7f…bb6d sports 302 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,232 (+3%) realized +$1,233 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate37%110W / 188L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day44.1pace
Fees−$562est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$1,554
14 days+$2,050
30 days+$1,514
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$326
other 23% +$967
world 2% −$12
finance 1% +$49
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% +$4
economics 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +10.6% +0.1% 37% 28% +16.4%
≤30d 203 +10.7% +0.2% 34% 28% -1.4%
≤90d 298 +7.0% -3.2% 37% 29% -8.0%
all 298 +7.0% -3.2% 37% 29% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.2% 29% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -12.4% 26% -16.8%
15% -20.9% 22% -24.9%
20% -28.7% 20% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$33 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$1,233
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses110 / 188
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$562
Open positions4
Markets (closed)298 / 302
History coverage57d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day44.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? No 74¢ 74¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $38 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? No 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Jun 28 $24 −$1 -2%
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $170 $0 +0%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $42 +$2 +6%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $60 +$14 +24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $24 +$8 +35%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $36 $0 -1%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $98 −$2 -2%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $39 −$1 -2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $23 +$9 +37%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $34 −$12 -34%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $51 $0 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 $0 -0%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $40 +$100 +253%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $186 +$9 +5%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $94 −$20 -22%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $92 +$42 +46%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $43 +$43 +100%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $69 +$21 +31%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $72 −$1 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $47 −$47 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $45 +$39 +86%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $70 −$2 -3%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $166 −$6 -4%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $80 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $18 +$11 +64%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $46 −$20 -43%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $38 +$1 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $8 +$22 +269%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $26 −$1 -2%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $111 −$5 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $96 −$2 -2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $390 +$1,691 +434%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $64 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $446 −$10 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 25 $158 −$4 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $39 +$2 +6%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $2 +$3 +105%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $17 −$5 -30%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $46 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL No 40¢ $25 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 40¢ $4 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 40¢ $24 2h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $24 4h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $22 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $18 4h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $22 4h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? SELL No 23¢ $23 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 23¢ $12 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 23¢ $12 7h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 7h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $17 7h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $17 7h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $23 7h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $23 7h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $23 7h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $23 7h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $3 7h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $3 7h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $3 7h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $3 7h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $12 7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $24 7h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $12 8h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $15 9h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $15 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 48¢ $12 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.89 · official $129.88 (match) · 3122 history records