Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:55:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b85…2757 crypto 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-21%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-80.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -78.9% -80.9% 14% 14% -85.6%
≤30d 7 -78.9% -80.9% 14% 14% -85.6%
≤90d 7 -78.9% -80.9% 14% 14% -85.6%
all 7 -78.9% -80.9% 14% 14% -85.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.9% 14% -85.6%
10% -82.7% 14% -87.0%
15% -84.4% 14% -88.2%
20% -85.9% 0% -89.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records