Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b85…8363 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$333 (-19%) realized −$193 · open −$140
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$228
economics 17% −$3
other 14% −$62
sports 10% −$17
tech 8% −$4
world 5% $0
culture 5% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -17.8% -25.6% 6% 0% -21.0%
≤30d 36 -17.8% -25.6% 6% 0% -21.0%
≤90d 36 -17.8% -25.6% 6% 0% -21.0%
all 36 -17.8% -25.6% 6% 0% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 0% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 0% -28.6%
15% -39.2% 0% -35.5%
20% -45.2% 0% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$193
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 34
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage4d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be less than $16B at market close on IPO day? Yes 41¢ 18¢ $41 $18 −$23 (-56%)
Will Carlos Moore win the 2026 GA-13 special election? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $118 $0 −$117 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 28 $132 −$4 -3%
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? Jun 28 $49 −$29 -60%
Will Andy Eads win the 2026 Denton County Judge election? Jun 28 $57 −$25 -44%
Will Kate Marshall win the 2026 Reno mayoral election? Jun 28 $55 −$16 -29%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Se Jun 28 $91 −$3 -3%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? Jun 28 $42 $0 +0%
Will Kathleen Taylor win the 2026 Reno mayoral election? Jun 28 $30 −$11 -37%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 28 $41 −$3 -7%
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? Jun 28 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Jun 28 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oc Jun 28 $215 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Wong win the 2026 Fort Bend County Judge election? Jun 28 $36 $0 -1%
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al Jun 26 $21 −$14 -68%
Will the announcers say "Fan" 10+ times during the Norway vs France FI Jun 26 $9 −$1 -12%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the Norway vs France Jun 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will the announcers say "Really good play" during the Croatia vs Ghana Jun 26 $3 $0 -3%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA Wo Jun 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Corner" 10+ times during the Croatia vs Ghana Jun 26 $13 $0 +2%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Colombia vs Portugal Jun 26 $14 −$2 -11%
Will the announcers say "Corner" 15+ times during the Colombia vs Port Jun 26 $16 −$2 -12%
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 5+ times during the Colombia Jun 26 $9 −$2 -22%
Will the announcers say "Verticality" during the Colombia vs Portugal Jun 26 $7 −$4 -60%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick" or "Hat Trick" during the Colombia Jun 26 $11 $0 -2%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Colombia vs Portugal Jun 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will the announcers say "Foul" 10+ times during the Colombia vs Portug Jun 26 $9 −$1 -14%
Will the announcers say "Knee" during the Colombia vs Portugal FIFA Wo Jun 26 $11 −$3 -26%
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 25 $9 −$6 -66%
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0% Jun 25 $32 −$16 -50%
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $20 −$12 -60%
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Jun 25 $37 −$4 -10%
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 25 $345 −$40 -12%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat? Jun 25 $5 $0 -8%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater th Jun 25 $36 $0 -1%
Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin 32%-34%? Jun 25 $16 −$2 -16%
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? Jun 25 $57 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? SELL Anthropic 85¢ $128 1h
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? SELL Yes 16¢ $20 1h
Will Andy Eads win the 2026 Denton County Judge election? SELL No 11¢ $32 1h
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be less than $16B at market close on I BUY Yes 41¢ $41 1h
Will Kate Marshall win the 2026 Reno mayoral election? SELL No 18¢ $26 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Se SELL No 37¢ $0 1h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $42 1h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $42 1h
Will Kathleen Taylor win the 2026 Reno mayoral election? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Se SELL No 36¢ $88 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Se BUY No 36¢ $91 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL Yes 77¢ $38 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 82¢ $41 2h
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 3h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $54 3h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $54 3h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oc SELL Yes 43¢ $130 3h
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $46 4h
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $45 4h
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oc SELL Yes 43¢ $83 5h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oc SELL Yes 43¢ $2 5h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oc BUY Yes 43¢ $215 5h
Will Andy Eads win the 2026 Denton County Judge election? BUY No 19¢ $57 6h
Will Kathleen Taylor win the 2026 Reno mayoral election? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 6h
Will Daniel Wong win the 2026 Fort Bend County Judge election? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 6h
Will Daniel Wong win the 2026 Fort Bend County Judge election? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 6h
Will Kathleen Taylor win the 2026 Reno mayoral election? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 6h
Will Kate Marshall win the 2026 Reno mayoral election? BUY No 28¢ $42 6h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? BUY Anthropic 88¢ $132 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.38 · official $17.88 (match) · 108 history records