Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:05:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8B 0x8b87…3e8d other 55 markets active 20h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16,042 (+8%) realized +$3,450 · open +$12,592
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate72%18W / 7L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$3,507per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$107,513now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$980
14 days−$980
30 days+$1,004
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 61% +$2,168
other 21% +$5,266
crypto 17% +$6,372
economics 0% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.1% -12.4% 0% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 18 +12.4% +1.7% 78% 50% -7.4%
≤90d 25 +5.2% -4.9% 72% 40% -7.9%
all 25 +5.2% -4.9% 72% 40% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 40% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 24% -16.7%
15% -22.3% 16% -24.7%
20% -29.9% 16% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,807) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$202 vs −$412 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$107,513
Realized+$3,450
Unrealized+$12,592
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses18 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions30
Markets (closed)25 / 55
History coverage90d
Avg bet$3,507
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 90¢ 100¢ $25,811 $28,500 +$2,690 (+10%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 85¢ 91¢ $18,164 $19,338 +$1,174 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 88¢ $11,156 $14,190 +$3,034 (+27%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 91¢ 100¢ $7,341 $8,094 +$752 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 80¢ $3,709 $5,712 +$2,004 (+54%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 90¢ 100¢ $4,878 $5,442 +$564 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 95¢ 100¢ $4,757 $4,992 +$236 (+5%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? No 82¢ 100¢ $3,171 $3,838 +$667 (+21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $3,691 $3,789 +$98 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? No 81¢ 100¢ $1,791 $2,221 +$430 (+24%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 90¢ 100¢ $1,382 $1,533 +$150 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 88¢ 100¢ $1,323 $1,493 +$170 (+13%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,360 $1,372 +$13 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? No 84¢ 100¢ $1,062 $1,270 +$207 (+20%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June? No 90¢ 100¢ $963 $1,068 +$106 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $915 $994 +$78 (+9%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No 81¢ 83¢ $652 $668 +$16 (+2%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $461 $500 +$39 (+8%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? No 91¢ 100¢ $426 $465 +$39 (+9%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $423 $463 +$40 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 76¢ 89¢ $380 $444 +$65 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 60¢ 59¢ $418 $412 −$6 (-1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? No 85¢ 100¢ $260 $305 +$45 (+17%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $156 $105 −$51 (-33%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? No 65¢ 100¢ $68 $105 +$36 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 26 $31,323 −$980 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $397 −$212 -54%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 10 $26 +$25 +96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $110 +$23 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $48 −$45 -94%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $46 +$4 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $952 +$41 +4%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $131 +$69 +52%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $160 +$40 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,831 +$164 +9%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May? May 31 $817 +$35 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 30 $250 +$309 +124%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 in May? May 30 $928 +$181 +20%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 30 $1,239 +$185 +15%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May? May 30 $1,807 +$189 +10%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May? May 30 $1,325 +$340 +26%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May? May 30 $1,063 +$687 +65%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? May 28 $213 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 28 $3,692 +$442 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 26 $1,859 −$971 -52%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 24 $341 −$213 -63%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 06 $11,119 +$885 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 12 $3,328 +$18 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Apr 10 $715 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $29 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $13 35h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $144 35h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 73¢ $149 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 89¢ $222 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 68¢ $135 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 56¢ $110 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 52¢ $76 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 89¢ $267 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 88¢ $444 3d
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? BUY No 84¢ $255 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? BUY No 79¢ $48 4d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? BUY No 93¢ $47 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $450 4d
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? BUY No 80¢ $162 5d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 78¢ $39 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $457 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $457 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $901 9d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY No 88¢ $3,385 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $589 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 85¢ $4 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 85¢ $4 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $486 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 85¢ $410 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $1,925 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1,757 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1,717 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $107 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $3,516 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107,513.02 · official $107,513.02 (match) · 598 history records