Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b8b…2512
weather · 1284 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$17
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)22 / 1284
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1114.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 4 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 12? No 80¢ 90¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? No 69¢ 65¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7? No 64¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 8? No 90¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 7? Yes 10¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+900%)
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 68¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 6? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Yes 73¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Yes 30¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+228%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 4? Yes 17¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+488%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-49%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 10? Yes 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 5? Yes 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? No 35¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 5? Yes 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Yes 27¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Yes 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 5? Yes 55¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 9? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? No 63¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Yes 19¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7? Jun 12 $1 $0 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 8? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 12 $0 $0 +901%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 12 $0 $0 +228%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 4? Jun 12 $0 $0 +488%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 83% $0
other 7% $0
sports 3% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $10 0m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $3 0m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $7 0m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 1m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $25 6m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $7 6m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 32¢ $4 6m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 8m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $2 8m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 79¢ $7 9m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $5 12m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $7 13m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 87¢ $39 15m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 75¢ $13 20m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 25m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 28m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $15 28m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $7 29m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes $3 33m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 33m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 34m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes $1 36m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 36m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 38m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 38m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY Yes $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes $1 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +33.6% +20.8% 50% 45% -16.2%
≤30d 22 +33.6% +20.8% 50% 45% -16.2%
≤90d 22 +33.6% +20.8% 50% 45% -16.2%
all 22 +33.6% +20.8% 50% 45% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1114.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.8% 45% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here +9.3% 32% -24.2%
15% -1.3% 27% -31.6%
20% -11.0% 23% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.07 · official $12.34 · 3500 history records