Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:35:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b8c…9390 sports 274 markets active 2h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$501 (-0%) realized −$1,182 · open +$681
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%157W / 114L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,258per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$513est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$951
7 days+$1,165
14 days+$2,440
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$4,710
other 9% +$16,133
politics 7% −$21,419
crypto 0% +$240
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -4.8% -13.9% 53% 47% -4.0%
≤30d 31 +12.7% +2.0% 52% 48% -9.6%
≤90d 58 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 47% -25.0%
all 271 +11.7% +1.1% 58% 53% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.1% 53% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -8.6% 45% -18.3%
15% -17.4% 38% -26.2%
20% -25.5% 29% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$2,630) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,208 vs −$1,672 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$2,461
Realized−$1,182
Unrealized+$681
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses157 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$513
Open positions2
Markets (closed)271 / 274
History coverage598d
Avg bet$2,258
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 46¢ 82¢ $1,380 $2,460 +$1,080 (+78%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? No 20¢ $400 $1 −$399 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $760 −$760 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $940 −$940 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,760 +$240 +14%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,460 +$540 +37%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $922 −$903 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $960 −$960 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $819 +$3,391 +414%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2,010 +$408 +20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,013 +$741 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3,220 +$280 +9%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,096 +$413 +38%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $510 −$500 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $680 +$320 +47%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $406 −$406 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,200 +$800 +67%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $400 +$1,600 +400%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $367 −$360 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $184 −$180 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $580 −$580 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $705 +$795 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $530 −$530 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $407 +$645 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $505 +$220 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $305 +$445 +146%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $4,600 −$4,600 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,046 +$3,647 +178%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2,019 −$2,000 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $756 −$756 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $336 +$464 +138%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $645 −$645 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $1,620 −$1,620 -100%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $619 −$619 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 09 $1,600 +$400 +25%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $655 −$655 -100%
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $520 +$480 +92%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $1,000 +$1,000 +100%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $380 −$380 -100%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 11 $490 −$490 -100%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 11 $700 −$700 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $223 −$223 -100%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $1,539 +$561 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam (Bantamweight, Main Ca Apr 06 $312 +$279 +90%
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweigh Apr 06 $324 +$268 +83%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 06 $980 +$1,020 +104%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $660 −$651 -99%
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Connecticut Huskies (W) Apr 03 $409 −$409 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 03 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $1,402 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 20¢ $400 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $760 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $940 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $922 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,760 21h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 48¢ $960 22h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 73¢ $158 22h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 73¢ $283 22h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 73¢ $366 22h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 73¢ $653 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,010 26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $819 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,013 43h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,013 43h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 92¢ $3,220 46h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 47h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $87 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland vs BUY 24¢ $10 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,008 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $510 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $624 2d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 27¢ $406 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,200 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $400 11d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $367 13d
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Switzerland 18¢ $184 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,461.00 · official $2,491.00 · 1379 history records