Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8B 0x8b8c…63c3 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$81 (+5%) realized +$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 39% +$53
other 39% +$21
politics 21% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +17.0% +5.9% 100% 100% +5.9%
≤30d 1 +17.0% +5.9% 100% 100% +5.9%
≤90d 3 +8.9% -1.5% 100% 33% -1.3%
all 8 +5.7% -4.4% 88% 12% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 12% -3.6%
10% -13.5% 0% -12.9%
15% -21.9% 0% -21.3%
20% -29.5% 0% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$0 · ×114.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×799.88 per $1 lost it wins $799.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage236d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $235 $235 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 18 $204 +$35 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 06 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Apr 02 $188 +$8 +4%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 11 $170 +$18 +10%
EU dissolves before 2027? Dec 16 $90 $0 -0%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 01 $86 +$4 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $157 +$4 +3%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 26 $158 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $235 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $239 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $204 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 95¢ $190 66d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? BUY No 96¢ $188 93d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $90 184d
EU dissolves before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $90 184d
EU dissolves before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $90 191d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 86¢ $80 212d
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? BUY No 96¢ $86 220d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 91¢ $37 226d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 95¢ $157 234d
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? BUY Yes 99¢ $158 236d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.88 · official $234.88 (match) · 19 history records