Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:52:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b99…ddef other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$49 (-41%) realized −$41 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$37
sports 32% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-58.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -54.5% -58.8% 12% 12% -42.0%
≤30d 8 -54.5% -58.8% 12% 12% -42.0%
≤90d 8 -54.5% -58.8% 12% 12% -42.0%
all 8 -54.5% -58.8% 12% 12% -42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.8% 12% -42.0%
10% -62.7% 12% -47.5%
15% -66.3% 12% -52.6%
20% -69.6% 12% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$7 · ×3.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $33 $30 −$3 (-8%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 29¢ 8¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$26 +258%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$7 -94%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 10h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 10h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 24h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 24h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $41 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.47 · official $46.47 (match) · 22 history records