Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

8B 0x8b99…6f86 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$38 (-73%) realized −$36 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -94% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -95% what you keep after slip

Net edge-95%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-94.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-94.0%	-94.6%	0%	0%	-90.4%
≤30d	2	-94.0%	-94.6%	0%	0%	-90.4%
≤90d	2	-94.0%	-94.6%	0%	0%	-90.4%
all	2	-94.0%	-94.6%	0%	0%	-90.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-94.6%	0%	-90.4%
10%	-95.1%	0%	-91.3%
15%	-95.6%	0%	-92.1%
20%	-96.0%	0%	-92.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -89% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -94% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$21 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$3

Realized−$36

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage5d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	66¢	40¢	$5	$3	−$2 (-40%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	Jun 15	$42	−$37	-88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Jun 10	$5	−$5	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$5	1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	SELL Yes	0¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$5	4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	BUY Yes	3¢	$42	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.99 · official $2.99 (match) · 4 history records