Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b9a…3f5f sports 259 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,254 (-10%) realized −$11,254 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate63%163W / 95L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$444per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$1,658est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days−$503
14 days−$214
30 days−$557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$11,941
crypto 5% −$145
other 0% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -14.7% -22.8% 55% 33% -21.9%
≤30d 110 +13.4% +2.6% 64% 41% -13.5%
≤90d 210 +7.6% -2.7% 64% 46% -20.5%
all 258 +4.9% -5.1% 63% 45% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 45% -18.6%
10% -14.1% 26% -26.4%
15% -22.4% 13% -33.5%
20% -30.0% 4% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$291 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$11,254
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses163 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,658
Open positions1
Markets (closed)258 / 259
History coverage117d
Avg bet$444
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland West Indies 64¢ 68¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $8 −$2 -22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $40 +$3 +7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $102 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $164 +$38 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $10 −$9 -88%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $20 +$8 +37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $46 −$22 -48%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $40 −$18 -45%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $38 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $92 +$15 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $62 +$8 +13%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $14 +$3 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $32 −$19 -59%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $138 −$10 -8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $88 −$47 -53%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $120 −$84 -70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $76 +$9 +12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $125 +$18 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $109 +$8 +7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $66 +$9 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $36 +$5 +15%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $153 +$5 +3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $253 −$93 -37%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $87 +$36 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $71 −$58 -82%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $854 −$287 -34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$23 -44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $57 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $54 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $43 −$9 -20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $78 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $48 −$6 -13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $75 +$23 +31%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $74 +$11 +15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $92 −$27 -29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $27 +$18 +65%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $93 +$12 +13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $409 +$16 +4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $32 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $31 +$2 +6%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$4 -39%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $59 −$30 -50%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $169 +$78 +46%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $255 +$111 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 64¢ $6 14m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 37¢ $7 22m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 46¢ $8 25m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 36¢ $10 26m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 35¢ $10 37m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 43¢ $11 42m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 40¢ $10 44m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 52¢ $10 46m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 48¢ $12 49m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 40¢ $10 51m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 50¢ $10 56m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 34¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 32¢ $108 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 16¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 26¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 26¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 26¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 26¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 26¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 26¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 48¢ $19 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 48¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 63¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $126 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $78 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 39¢ $0 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 39¢ $77 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $49 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.75 · official $6.80 (match) · 2385 history records