Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

8B 0x8b9a…7d40 other 18 markets active 11h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,360 (+17%) realized +$1,360 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate61%11W / 7L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown17%max

Avg bet$455per market

Trades / day15.1pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit21%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)-5.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+4.1%	-5.8%	61%	56%	+4.1%
≤30d	18	+4.1%	-5.8%	61%	56%	+4.1%
≤90d	18	+4.1%	-5.8%	61%	56%	+4.1%
all	18	+4.1%	-5.8%	61%	56%	+4.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.8%	56%	+4.1%
10%	-14.8%	39%	-5.9%
15%	-23.0%	33%	-15.0%
20%	-30.6%	33%	-23.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 36% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

9% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$507) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$178 vs −$103 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$1,360

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)61%

Wins / losses11 / 7

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions0

Markets (closed)18 / 18

History coverage3d

Avg bet$455

Trades / day15.1

Drawdown17%

Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 18 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 20	$104	−$104	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$152	−$150	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$1,263	+$276	+22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$354	+$219	+62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$2,666	+$283	+11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$152	+$86	+56%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$507	+$418	+82%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$328	−$242	-74%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$152	+$97	+64%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$186	+$180	+97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$349	−$163	-47%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$49	−$2	-4%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$71	−$61	-85%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$641	+$132	+21%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 17	$10	−$2	-19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$303	+$70	+23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$607	+$1	+0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$303	+$195	+64%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	49¢	$152	10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	79¢	$453	14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$573	15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$253	15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	57¢	$553	22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$557	33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$354	33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,468	33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	85¢	$2,109	33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	74¢	$301	34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	73¢	$302	34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	36¢	$180	34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	49¢	$254	38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$237	39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$152	42h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$925	42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	18¢	$86	42h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	54¢	$507	42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	72¢	$252	43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$76	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	98¢	$249	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$152	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$365	2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	50¢	$186	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	42¢	$186	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$349	2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	11¢	$33	3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	39¢	$47	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	32¢	$102	3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	39¢	$49	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records