Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b9f…bd22 sports 186 markets active 2h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$34 (-2%) realized −$33 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%58W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days+$464
14 days+$476
30 days+$451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$167
politics 27% −$491
other 24% +$294
economics 1% −$21
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -4.4% -13.5% 38% 38% +49.2%
≤30d 143 +2.4% -7.4% 38% 38% +35.1%
≤90d 143 +2.4% -7.4% 38% 38% +35.1%
all 165 -3.1% -12.4% 35% 35% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 35% -12.3%
10% -20.7% 35% -20.7%
15% -28.4% 33% -28.4%
20% -35.4% 31% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses58 / 107
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions20
Markets (closed)165 / 186
History coverage612d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Under 95¢ 95¢ $220 $220 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 35¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 Over 36¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score No 38¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Spain? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$3 +250%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $5 +$5 +105%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 +$6 +55%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2 +$2 +82%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -74%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -56%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 +$4 +142%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2 +$3 +146%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1 +$1 +79%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1 +$1 +97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 +$5 +88%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 +$3 +62%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 95¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Spain? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 95¢ $120 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY 27¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 2h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2 2h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 19h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 19h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 19h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $2 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 19h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 20h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $2 20h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 20h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 20h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 50¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.08 · official $303.05 (match) · 331 history records