Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:47:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b9f…adf3 crypto 79 markets active 3d ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$69 (-21%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate39%31W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$54
14 days−$54
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$26
crypto 42% −$15
other 8% −$20
sports 8% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -23.4% -30.7% 35% 13% -32.5%
≤30d 23 -23.4% -30.7% 35% 13% -32.5%
≤90d 79 -21.7% -29.2% 39% 25% -30.3%
all 79 -21.7% -29.2% 39% 25% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 25% -30.3%
10% -35.9% 18% -37.0%
15% -42.1% 14% -43.1%
20% -47.8% 9% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses31 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage72d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $137 −$26 -19%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 06 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 06 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11AM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 05 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +16%
Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026? Apr 05 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2PM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 05 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 05 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 05 $2 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 04 $8 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 04 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 04 $4 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $41 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $10 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $60 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $70 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $67 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $9 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 6¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $2 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 19¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 219 history records