Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8ba1…8eee other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$575 (-15%) realized −$563 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$194
other 46% −$408
crypto 1% −$4
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +33.8% +21.0% 38% 38% -4.5%
≤30d 21 +33.8% +21.0% 38% 38% -4.5%
≤90d 31 +9.2% -1.2% 35% 32% -23.7%
all 31 +9.2% -1.2% 35% 32% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 32% -23.7%
10% -10.6% 32% -31.0%
15% -19.3% 29% -37.6%
20% -27.2% 26% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$86 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$563
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)31 / 39
History coverage83d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-7%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $15 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $21 +$78 +381%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $20 +$34 +164%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $31 +$58 +189%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $61 +$83 +136%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $61 −$15 -24%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$12 -78%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$9 -43%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$4 -7%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $46 −$7 -16%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $142 −$138 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $79 −$77 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $21 +$50 +243%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $176 −$112 -63%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $230 +$96 +42%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $123 −$120 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $41 +$16 +39%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $51 +$228 +444%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $200 +$14 +7%
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-16.5) Mar 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Mar 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-8.5) Mar 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Magic (-15.5) Mar 27 $400 +$343 +86%
Lakers vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5 Mar 26 $400 +$130 +33%
Bruins vs. Sabres Mar 26 $200 −$94 -47%
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs Verdant (+1.5) Mar 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $100 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 15¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 29¢ $22 3h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 13¢ $21 4h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 96¢ $43 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $55 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 61¢ $33 12h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 22¢ $11 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 27¢ $31 12h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 21¢ $20 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 92¢ $83 12h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 69¢ $62 13h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 15¢ $38 13h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 13h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 36¢ $41 13h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 13h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 13h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 13h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 29¢ $20 15h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $48 15h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.35 · official $152.35 (match) · 104 history records