Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8baa…0032 other 262 markets active 2h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$281 (-7%) realized −$226 · open −$55
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%87W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$64
14 days+$42
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$28
sports 25% −$175
crypto 5% +$11
world 3% +$8
finance 1% +$8
politics 0% −$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -6.8% -15.6% 29% 21% -12.9%
≤30d 31 +7.9% -2.3% 39% 35% -8.4%
≤90d 98 -0.3% -9.8% 34% 33% -12.3%
all 244 -10.9% -19.3% 36% 34% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 34% -12.9%
10% -27.1% 33% -21.2%
15% -34.1% 31% -28.8%
20% -40.6% 25% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$226
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses87 / 157
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)244 / 262
History coverage237d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 28¢ 19¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-32%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $60 $30 −$30 (-50%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 32¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 27 $103 −$16 -15%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,376 −$29 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$3 -5%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 27 $30 +$68 +226%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -74%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $2 $0 -19%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +53%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $71 −$70 -98%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $10 $0 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $6 $0 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $31 +$62 +203%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +68%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $20 +$29 +142%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Leganés vs. CD Mirandés end in a draw? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $1 +$3 +262%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $6 +$14 +220%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 May 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1 +$4 +385%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 111.5 May 26 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $1 +$1 +88%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 24 $30 +$14 +46%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 23 $20 +$9 +46%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 47¢ $88 1h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 52¢ $103 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $98 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $98 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $98 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $98 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $98 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $98 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $98 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $98 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $98 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $39 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $39 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $39 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $49 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $49 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.74 · official $119.09 · 592 history records