Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:51:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8B 0x8bab…f30e sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+14%) realized +$41 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$40
other 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -33.0% -39.3% 50% 50% +19.3%
≤30d 2 -33.0% -39.3% 50% 50% +19.3%
≤90d 2 -33.0% -39.3% 50% 50% +19.3%
all 2 -33.0% -39.3% 50% 50% +19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.3% 50% +19.3%
10% -45.1% 50% +7.9%
15% -50.4% 0% -2.5%
20% -55.3% 0% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$2 · ×20.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.61 per $1 lost it wins $20.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 68¢ 68¢ $148 $147 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $121 +$41 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $149 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? AND Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY 2¢ $3 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a d BUY 13¢ $14 21h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 21h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $71 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.91 · official $146.91 (match) · 7 history records