Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8B 0x8bab…746e sports 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$187 (-4%) realized −$187 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$526
14 days−$224
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$109
other 26% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -33.6% -39.9% 50% 39% -24.6%
≤30d 33 -25.2% -32.3% 58% 42% -14.4%
≤90d 33 -25.2% -32.3% 58% 42% -14.4%
all 33 -25.2% -32.3% 58% 42% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 42% -14.4%
10% -38.8% 21% -22.5%
15% -44.7% 12% -30.0%
20% -50.1% 9% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$66 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage9d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Over 7¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $70 +$7 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $71 −$71 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $60 +$19 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$60 +59%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $297 +$18 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $70 −$68 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $139 −$137 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 −$46 -46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $181 −$180 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $75 +$11 +14%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $201 +$62 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $219 +$32 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $71 +$30 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $340 +$33 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $199 +$17 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $73 +$51 +70%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $224 +$48 +21%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $470 −$248 -53%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 199.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $439 +$82 +19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $375 +$69 +18%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $223 +$151 +68%
Will "Imagine" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the we Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $1 18m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $77 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $70 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $19 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $19 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $13 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $71 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $20 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $41 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $79 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $5 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $161 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 75¢ $60 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $315 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $297 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $70 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $139 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Over 41¢ $54 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $181 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $86 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 87¢ $75 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $201 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.54 · official $2.97 (match) · 58 history records