Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8bac…cf49
weather · 672 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$8,472 -34%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8,419 · open −$95
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$253
Realized−$8,419
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses133 / 697
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions27
Markets (closed)830 / 672
Avg bet$37
Trades / day64.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 27 History 830 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,169
7 days−$10,615
14 days−$10,204
30 days−$9,481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+18%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin shake hands on Friday? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on August 18 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 27? Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 16? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on February 22? Jun 12 $46 −$48 -105%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 9? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 21? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 2? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 28? Jun 12 $134 −$134 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 9? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 4? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 8? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 28? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 29? Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 6? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 22? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 24? Jun 12 $64 −$27 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 20? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 4? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 75-76°F on August 16 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 27? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 15? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 26? Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 21? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 71-72°F on August 16 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 18? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 6? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 19? Jun 12 $17 −$6 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on March Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 5? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 26? Jun 12 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 6? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 20? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on March 26? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 12? Jun 12 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 13? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 6? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 14? Jun 12 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 19? Jun 12 $38 −$40 -105%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 3? Jun 12 $128 −$128 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 36°F or higher on March 16? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 17? Jun 12 $10 −$14 -138%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 February 2-8? Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 98% +$2,728
other 1% −$2
politics 0% −$109
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 94¢ $81 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 93¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 93¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 95¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 95¢ $293 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 91¢ $408 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 44¢ $28 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? SELL Yes 44¢ $31 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 19h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 19h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 19h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 19h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 19h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 19h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 19h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 348 -84.0% -85.5% 5% 4% -76.2%
≤30d 536 -50.4% -55.1% 12% 10% -53.3%
≤90d 830 -34.6% -40.8% 16% 13% -33.3%
all 830 -34.6% -40.8% 16% 13% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover64.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.8% 13% -33.3%
10% ← realistic here -46.5% 11% -39.7%
15% -51.6% 10% -45.5%
20% -56.4% 10% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.08 · official $253.08 (match) · 3500 history records