Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8B 0x8bad…223f other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$373 (+49%) realized +$373 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 157d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$102
sports 43% +$231
world 7% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +70.3% +54.1% 100% 100% +54.1%
≤30d 1 +70.3% +54.1% 100% 100% +54.1%
≤90d 3 +65.4% +49.6% 100% 100% +53.8%
all 7 +6.6% -3.6% 57% 57% +39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 57% +39.9%
10% -12.8% 57% +26.5%
15% -21.2% 57% +14.3%
20% -29.0% 57% +3.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$23 · ×4.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.21 per $1 lost it wins $6.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$373
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage157d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 16 $328 +$231 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $188 +$141 +75%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 14 $53 +$27 +51%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $20 +$30 +150%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $328 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 66¢ $5 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 66¢ $25 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 66¢ $66 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 66¢ $8 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 66¢ $7 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 66¢ $2 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 66¢ $40 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 66¢ $25 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 66¢ $32 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 66¢ $68 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $188 64d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $80 64d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 157d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 157d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 157d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-11? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 157d
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? BUY Yes 39¢ $39 157d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 53¢ $53 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.73 · official $99.73 (match) · 26 history records