Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:01:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8B 0x8bae…a34c sports 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,166 (-40%) realized −$10,185 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%15W / 32L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$472per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$919now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days−$10,600
14 days−$10,292
30 days−$10,292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$12,345
sports 31% +$2,045
crypto 0% +$77
world 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +20.2% +8.7% 32% 32% -53.2%
≤30d 47 +16.8% +5.7% 32% 32% -49.6%
≤90d 47 +16.8% +5.7% 32% 32% -49.6%
all 47 +16.8% +5.7% 32% 32% -49.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 32% -49.6%
10% -4.4% 32% -54.4%
15% -13.6% 32% -58.8%
20% -22.1% 32% -62.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +51% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$506 vs −$559 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$919
Realized−$10,185
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses15 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions4
Markets (closed)47 / 54
History coverage8d
Avg bet$472
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $500 $523 +$23 (+5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 40¢ 38¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $457 +$603 +132%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $202 +$120 +60%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $559 −$550 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Raphinha: 2+ goals Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $158 −$155 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $363 +$484 +133%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $253 +$210 +83%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $230 −$225 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $77 +$88 +115%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $508 −$350 -69%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $77 −$75 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $205 +$748 +365%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 17 $139 −$136 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13,612 −$13,277 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $255 −$19 -8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,016 +$1,153 +114%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $255 −$250 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $509 +$654 +129%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$504 +982%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $660 +$724 +110%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $255 +$526 +206%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $44 −$43 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $342 −$335 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $307 −$300 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $611 −$600 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$310 +864%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $51 +$127 +248%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $204 +$524 +256%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $460 −$450 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $777 +$809 +104%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $254 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 20¢ $205 6h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain BUY 2¢ $26 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 7¢ $514 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $202 6h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $559 6h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 20h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 21h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $515 21h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 21h
Raphinha: 2+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $26 24h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 11¢ $15 29h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 29h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 86¢ $847 29h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $463 29h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $230 30h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $142 31h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $253 31h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $363 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 47h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 SELL Under 47¢ $165 2d
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $102 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $356 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $143 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $918.59 · official $1,643.59 · 92 history records