Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:04:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8bb0…ca79 sports 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44,975 (+15%) realized +$44,876 · open +$99
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%66W / 91L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,930per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$3,391est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$4,759now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,400
7 days−$200
14 days−$200
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$25,099
other 14% +$15,557
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 25% -17.7%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 25% -17.7%
≤90d 154 -6.0% -15.0% 42% 42% +3.2%
all 157 -5.4% -14.5% 42% 42% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 42% +2.5%
10% -22.6% 41% -7.3%
15% -30.1% 41% -16.3%
20% -37.0% 40% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$2,600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,625 vs −$1,458 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$4,759
Realized+$44,876
Unrealized+$99
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses66 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$3,391
Open positions3
Markets (closed)157 / 160
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,930
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 72¢ 79¢ $1,400 $1,529 +$129 (+9%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $1,000 $962 −$38 (-4%)
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Netherlands 16¢ 16¢ $260 $268 +$8 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $820 −$800 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $617 −$600 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $511 +$1,500 +293%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 30 $2,029 +$1,892 +93%
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) Apr 30 $1,522 +$1,419 +93%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5 Apr 30 $2,029 +$1,817 +90%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $2,532 −$2,500 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 29 $767 −$750 -98%
Spread: Celtics (-10.5) Apr 29 $4,565 +$4,153 +91%
Spread: Sabres (-1.5) Apr 28 $1,222 −$1,200 -98%
1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Apr 28 $999 −$999 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $308 −$300 -97%
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5 Apr 28 $4,483 +$4,926 +110%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Apr 27 $2,000 −$1,969 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $5,000 +$3,366 +67%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) Apr 27 $2,000 −$1,971 -98%
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) Apr 27 $620 +$492 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Apr 27 $3,000 +$2,624 +88%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 26 $916 −$898 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague (Women's Bant Apr 26 $2,000 +$516 +26%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Apr 26 $1,500 +$1,398 +93%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Apr 26 $1,500 +$1,641 +109%
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5) Apr 26 $2,550 +$2,796 +110%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $5,000 +$4,893 +98%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 212.5 Apr 26 $1,000 +$944 +94%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 214.5 Apr 26 $1,000 +$1,186 +119%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Apr 25 $26 −$26 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Eric McConico vs. Rodolfo Vieira (null, Prelims) Apr 25 $1,500 −$1,489 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden (Flyweight, Prelims) Apr 25 $1,300 −$1,272 -98%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw? Apr 25 $350 −$350 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Lucas Brennan vs. Francis Marshall (Lightweight, Prel Apr 25 $1,500 −$1,492 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 213.5 Apr 25 $1,500 −$1,476 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Apr 25 $2,000 +$1,756 +88%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $3,000 +$2,107 +70%
Spread: Rockets (-8.5) Apr 25 $1,000 +$1,051 +105%
Spread: Rockets (-9.5) Apr 25 $2,500 +$2,097 +84%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Apr 25 $2,000 +$1,940 +97%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 215.5 Apr 25 $2,500 +$2,425 +97%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 24 $2,600 −$1,636 -63%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $5,000 +$4,969 +99%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5 Apr 24 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $1,500 +$1,539 +103%
Spread: Thunder (-17.5) Apr 23 $2,820 +$2,426 +86%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Apr 23 $3,000 +$2,683 +89%
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) Apr 23 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline Apr 23 $1,500 −$465 -31%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $4,500 +$12,243 +272%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) BUY Netherlands 16¢ $267 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 72¢ $1,412 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1,018 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 17¢ $820 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $617 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $307 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $511 5d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 57¢ $2,532 56d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 51¢ $2,029 57d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 24¢ $767 57d
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) BUY Raptors 51¢ $1,522 57d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2,029 57d
Spread: Celtics (-10.5) BUY 76ers 52¢ $1,522 58d
Spread: Sabres (-1.5) BUY Sabres 39¢ $1,222 58d
Spread: Celtics (-10.5) BUY 76ers 51¢ $3,044 58d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 BUY Under $308 58d
1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5) BUY Suns 50¢ $999 58d
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 46¢ $500 59d
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,483 59d
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,000 59d
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,500 59d
Golden Knights vs. Utah BUY Utah 48¢ $2,000 59d
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) BUY Thunder 51¢ $2,000 59d
Lakers vs. Rockets SELL Rockets 100¢ $4,097 59d
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) BUY Rockets 55¢ $620 59d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 59¢ $5,000 59d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 33¢ $916 60d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 54¢ $1,000 60d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $2,000 60d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 49¢ $3,000 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,759.04 · official $4,759.04 (match) · 410 history records