Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bb2…8468 sports 48 markets active 13h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-4%) realized −$15 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day52.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$45
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$45
weather 11% −$9
other 10% $0
crypto 1% −$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -26.8% -33.8% 38% 24% -22.0%
≤30d 39 -27.5% -34.4% 38% 26% -22.9%
≤90d 39 -27.5% -34.4% 38% 26% -22.9%
all 39 -27.5% -34.4% 38% 26% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.4% 26% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -40.7% 15% -30.3%
15% -46.4% 13% -37.0%
20% -51.7% 10% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions9
Markets (closed)39 / 48
History coverage8d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day52.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $51 $44 −$8 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-18%)
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $4 −$1 -22%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $19 +$1 +6%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $25 +$1 +6%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $11 +$2 +19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $27 −$14 -52%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $59 −$3 -4%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $24 −$1 -6%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $31 −$4 -12%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $5 −$3 -53%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $14 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $24 −$4 -17%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $34 −$6 -16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas Jun 11 $21 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $93 −$15 -16%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $19 −$9 -48%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 +$2 +38%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $11 −$11 -99%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $13 +$14 +105%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $6 −$2 -31%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $29 +$9 +31%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7 +$1 +11%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $9 +$6 +66%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $4 +$6 +140%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $3 $0 -7%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $3 −$2 -81%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $3 +$2 +97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $5 −$4 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $3 $0 +10%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $1 $0 +19%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 11? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY Yes 9¢ $4 13h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY Yes 8¢ $0 17h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY Yes 9¢ $9 17h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY Yes 9¢ $0 21h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY Yes 8¢ $1 23h
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 28h
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 30h
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June BUY Yes 2¢ $0 30h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY Yes 11¢ $3 30h
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY Yes 11¢ $2 30h
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 30h
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY Yes 11¢ $1 30h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY Yes 11¢ $2 30h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY Yes 11¢ $3 30h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY Yes 11¢ $1 30h
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June BUY Yes 3¢ $0 30h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 18¢ $5 30h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June BUY Yes 3¢ $1 30h
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 30h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June BUY Yes 3¢ $0 30h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June BUY Yes 3¢ $0 30h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 18¢ $2 30h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY Yes 11¢ $1 30h
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 30h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY Yes 12¢ $2 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.83 · official $121.83 (match) · 406 history records