Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8B 0x8bb6…735c crypto 1129 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,635 (-53%) realized −$7,752 · open +$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%551W / 576L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$712now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 81d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$858
sports 22% −$1,364
other 5% +$294
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 258 -8.4% -17.1% 60% 51% -40.9%
≤30d 595 -2.4% -11.7% 51% 46% -25.6%
≤90d 1127 -3.6% -12.8% 49% 44% -22.9%
all 1127 -3.6% -12.8% 49% 44% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 44% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 42% -30.3%
15% -28.7% 39% -37.0%
20% -35.7% 35% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$712
Realized−$7,752
Unrealized+$117
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses551 / 576
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1127 / 1129
History coverage81d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 74¢ 94¢ $340 $432 +$92 (+27%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 57¢ $255 $279 +$24 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$235 +235%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $514 −$514 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $211 +$200 +95%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $201 +$86 +43%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $199 −$199 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $310 −$310 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$3 +40%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $491 −$491 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$4 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 45m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $70 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $70 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $335 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $50 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 7h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 10h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $160 11h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $40 11h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 11h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 11h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 11h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $60 14h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 16h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 34h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 42h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $11 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $711.56 · official $711.61 (match) · 3500 history records