Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:05:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bba…9724 other 243 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 229L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$32
sports 23% −$26
culture 7% −$8
politics 7% −$7
world 5% −$3
economics 4% −$2
crypto 4% −$4
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 57 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 168 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 242 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)242 / 243
History coverage139d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $163 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $539 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $421 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $751 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $409 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $215 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $407 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $312 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $357 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $609 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $72 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $318 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $434 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $429 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $516 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $582 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $329 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $151 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $447 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $372 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $162 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $279 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $391 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 06 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $296 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $669 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $542 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $546 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $182 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $69 1h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $69 5h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $69 7h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 14h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 16h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $69 17h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $69 18h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 26h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 28h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $69 29h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $69 30h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $69 35h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $69 37h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $69 39h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $70 40h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $70 44h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $70 46h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $70 47h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $70 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $70 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $70 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $70 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $70 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $70 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $70 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $70 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $70 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $70 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $71 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $71 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.64 · official $68.60 (match) · 1402 history records