Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:11:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bbb…3ddf sports 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,391 (-28%) realized −$1,419 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%32W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$138
7 days+$12
14 days+$26
30 days−$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$1,373
other 20% −$14
politics 3% −$1
economics 2% +$2
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +113.0% +92.7% 54% 50% -8.7%
≤30d 51 +45.5% +31.6% 51% 43% -18.7%
≤90d 57 +41.2% +27.8% 56% 40% -16.4%
all 59 +36.5% +23.5% 54% 39% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.5% 39% -37.1%
10% +11.6% 32% -43.1%
15% +0.9% 27% -48.6%
20% -9.0% 27% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$83 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$1,419
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses32 / 27
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions4
Markets (closed)59 / 63
History coverage580d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $102 $133 +$30 (+30%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $7 −$2 (-26%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$32 +316%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $62 +$44 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$57 +1115%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $254 −$253 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $268 +$43 +16%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $44 +$23 +52%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $71 +$55 +78%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +238%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $43 −$43 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$41 +81%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $51 +$38 +74%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 +$80 +1547%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $63 −$62 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $154 +$8 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$29 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$22 +107%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $40 +$13 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $169 −$167 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $16 −$16 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $100 +$86 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $140 −$139 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $109 +$31 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $63 +$7 +10%
Jannik Sinner vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 28 $5 −$3 -56%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 27 $20 +$30 +149%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 27 $20 +$16 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $51 −$1 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 26 $50 +$17 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $51 −$15 -29%
Roland Garros ATP: Rinky Hijikata vs Tommy Paul May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 24 $10 +$22 +210%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $64 −$63 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 22 $29 −$20 -68%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 22 $50 +$31 +61%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik May 21 $238 −$130 -55%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 21 $102 +$22 +22%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud May 21 $2 −$1 -69%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert May 21 $150 +$13 +8%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur May 20 $133 +$17 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $103 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $43 5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 12h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $62 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $254 29h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 29h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $51 29h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 34h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $310 41h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $268 42h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $44 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $126 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $71 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $24 3d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 3d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $43 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $92 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $88 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? SELL Yes 100¢ $85 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.49 · official $145.52 (match) · 125 history records