Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:34:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8bc3…5498
crypto · 18 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$13 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 3 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 31¢ 100¢ $4 $13 +$9 (+222%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-92%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$5 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 85% −$16
other 8% −$9
sports 7% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $4 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 41h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -13.9% -22.1% 60% 27% -22.2%
≤30d 15 -13.9% -22.1% 60% 27% -22.2%
≤90d 15 -13.9% -22.1% 60% 27% -22.2%
all 15 -13.9% -22.1% 60% 27% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 27% -22.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 20% -29.7%
15% -36.3% 20% -36.5%
20% -42.6% 13% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.55 · official $13.55 (match) · 62 history records