Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:58:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bc9…7349 crypto 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%27W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,432per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$19
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 21 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.5%
all 28 +0.2% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×215.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5815.75 per $1 lost it wins $5815.75
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses27 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,432
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 07 $105 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 05 $6,557 +$7 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 19 $14,940 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 18 $9,783 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 16 $9,970 +$10 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $281 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 02 $140 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 26 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 4 Feb 05 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 3 Feb 04 $139 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 02 $139 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 25 $120 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $99 39h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 32d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 36d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 40d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 43d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $99 46d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 65d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 65d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 65d
Will Solana dip to $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 65d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 65d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 65d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 65d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $20 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $4,963 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $4,980 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $4,980 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $14 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $3 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $9,783 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14,940 69d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $3,775 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $9,980 69d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $6 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.89 · official $152.89 (match) · 163 history records