Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bca…e136 weather 562 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (150 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$83 (-2%) realized −$76 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%180W / 486L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day150.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$857
7 days−$903
14 days−$878
30 days−$832
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$31
crypto 0% +$2
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (150 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 306 -34.4% -40.7% 22% 20% -59.7%
≤30d 666 -15.7% -23.8% 27% 26% -20.2%
≤90d 666 -15.7% -23.8% 27% 26% -20.2%
all 666 -15.7% -23.8% 27% 26% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover150.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 26% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 23% -27.8%
15% -37.7% 22% -34.8%
20% -43.8% 20% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$7 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses180 / 486
Open positions28
Markets (closed)666 / 562
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day150.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 666 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $19 $16 −$2 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? No 80¢ 82¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 58¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 17? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Yes 39¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Yes 13¢ 9¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-54%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? Yes 23¢ 40¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 13¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-81%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 472 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 12? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 23? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 14? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 9? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 22? Jun 17 $2 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30? Jun 17 $4 +$18 +462%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 +429%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 18? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -112%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 17? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +2242%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 9? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 22? Jun 17 $9 −$7 -80%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 22? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on May 8? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 12? Jun 17 $0 −$2 -373%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 30? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 9? Jun 17 $6 −$4 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -242%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 2? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 16? Jun 17 $0 −$18 -7198%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 7? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -178%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 24? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 20? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 23? Jun 17 $8 −$12 -152%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May Jun 17 $13 −$14 -106%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 25? Jun 17 $3 −$5 -158%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 23? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 18? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 15? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 24? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 2? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 11? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 6? Jun 17 $0 −$2 -2511%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 14? Jun 17 $1 −$10 -754%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 6? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -106%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 12? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 17? Jun 17 $0 −$2 -4908%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 18? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 25? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 100¢ $36 27m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.74 · official $93.83 (match) · 3500 history records