Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bca…6611 weather 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$519 (-7%) realized −$518 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%74W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% −$477
other 7% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 49 -3.2% -12.4% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 78 -4.1% -13.2% 95% 1% -16.2%
all 78 -4.1% -13.2% 95% 1% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 1% -16.2%
10% -21.5% 0% -24.2%
15% -29.1% 0% -31.5%
20% -36.1% 0% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$140 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$518
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses74 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)78 / 82
History coverage58d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or higher on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 20? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C or higher on June 20? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 18? Jun 18 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $70 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $55 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 1? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 29? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on May 29? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 29? May 30 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 27? May 28 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on May 27? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Citrea FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 28 $100 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 26 $140 +$1 +0%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $30 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or higher on May 25? May 25 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on May 25? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 25? May 25 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 22? May 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 22? May 22 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 22? May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Nexus FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 21 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 17? May 17 $501 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $33 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $33 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $80 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $80 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $69 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $58 10d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $70 10d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $50 10d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $16 11d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $50 11d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $55 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $57 11d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $70 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $100 11d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $50 14d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $70 14d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $50 14d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $76 15d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $50 15d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $50 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.96 · official $180.96 (match) · 156 history records