Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:15:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8B 0x8bca…824e sports 303 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,067 (-24%) realized −$1,067 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%145W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$105
14 days+$120
30 days+$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$95
sports 41% −$1,055
other 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 +16.0% +5.0% 53% 48% -5.4%
≤30d 186 +10.0% -0.5% 58% 46% +1.6%
≤90d 259 +2.5% -7.3% 56% 44% -31.2%
all 259 +2.5% -7.3% 56% 44% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 44% -31.2%
10% -16.1% 37% -37.8%
15% -24.2% 34% -43.8%
20% -31.7% 29% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$18 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$1,067
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses145 / 114
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions43
Markets (closed)259 / 303
History coverage43d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Targu Mures: Mili Poljicak vs Sumit Nagal Mili Poljicak 49¢ 90¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+84%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee Sarah Rakotomanga 38¢ 66¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+75%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anna-Lena Friedsam vs Clervie Ngounoue Clervie Ngounoue 58¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+72%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Viktoria Hruncakova Rebecca Sramkova 61¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+64%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playoffs 4ikibamboni 28¢ 62¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+120%)
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Benjamin Hassan 42¢ 51¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+21%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B FOKUS 49¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiaodi You vs Leolia Jeanjean Xiaodi You 53¢ 40¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Nigma Galaxy 44¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs 4ikibamboni 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Dolehide vs Robin Montgomery Robin Montgomery 92¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bamin Real Potosí win on 2026-05-14? No 48¢ 70¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+46%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Ugo Humbert 60¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva Ella McDonald 42¢ 69¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic Radu Albot 48¢ 61¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+27%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Juan Estevez Joaquin Aguilar 42¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Inner Circle 37¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Ribera Lola Radivojevic 41¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Hayu Kinoshita 43¢ 26¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Spirit 87¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group C Alpha Dominion Nation 47¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Playoffs Atrix Esports 42¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova Lucie Havlickova 59¢ 39¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 23 $2 $0 +22%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Carole Monnet vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$20 +43%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne Jun 23 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Alina Charaeva Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$11 +53%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $2 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $106 +$49 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $124 +$67 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $114 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -96%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 23 $1 +$3 +276%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +2%
Targu Mures: Elmer Moeller vs Luca Potenza Jun 23 $1 $0 +17%
Plovdiv: Philip Henning vs Andres Santamarta Jun 23 $2 +$3 +152%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mai Hontama vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $103 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $86 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $41 $0 -1%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Priscilla Hon vs Nao Hibino Jun 23 $2 +$2 +114%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao Jun 23 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $2 +$5 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$24 +114%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day Jun 23 $1 $0 +29%
Plovdiv: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Jelle Sels Jun 23 $1 +$3 +291%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $32 +$63 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$38 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $32 $0 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 23 $2 +$2 +114%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Amelia Rajecki vs Suzan Lamens Jun 23 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $215 +$123 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $84 −$83 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $170 +$52 +30%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Despina Papamichail vs Claire Liu Jun 23 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $103 +$70 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $114 −$111 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys Jun 23 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $115 +$51 +44%
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Viktor Durasovic Jun 23 $1 $0 +11%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Emerson Jones Jun 23 $2 +$2 +86%
Plovdiv: Gabriele Piraino vs Lorenzo Angelini Jun 23 $1 +$2 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 39¢ $1 16m
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Valentin Basel BUY Valerio Aboian 82¢ $1 16m
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Juan Estevez BUY Joaquin Aguilar 42¢ $1 17m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Ugo Humbert 60¢ $2 17m
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Luciano Darderi 63¢ $1 17m
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Stefan Haita BUY Stefan Haita 22¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $13 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $29 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $19 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $29 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $21 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $15 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $32 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 40m
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Alan Rubio BUY Andrej Nedic 90¢ $1 40m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 38¢ $2 42m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan BUY Jeline Vandromme 44¢ $1 42m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 43¢ $2 43m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva BUY Ella McDonald 42¢ $1 43m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Hanyu Guo BUY Hanyu Guo 40¢ $2 44m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Arantxa Rus vs Veronika Podrez BUY Arantxa Rus 28¢ $1 44m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Whitney Osuigwe BUY Maria Timofeeva 96¢ $1 45m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber BUY Lola Radivojevic 41¢ $1 47m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Grabher vs Mariam Bolkvadze BUY Mariam Bolkvadze 87¢ $1 47m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiaodi You vs Leolia Jeanjean BUY Xiaodi You 44¢ $1 47m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Dolehide vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 95¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.06 · official $63.81 (match) · 583 history records