Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:17:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bca…0500 crypto 500 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (396 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,317 (-25%) realized −$2,333 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%156W / 385L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day395.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$316
7 days−$633
14 days−$1,515
30 days−$1,515
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 81% −$737
crypto 19% −$457
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (396 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 510 -24.7% -31.9% 30% 26% -19.3%
≤30d 541 -24.3% -31.5% 29% 25% -24.6%
≤90d 541 -24.3% -31.5% 29% 25% -24.6%
all 541 -24.3% -31.5% 29% 25% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover395.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.5% 25% -24.6%
10% ← realistic here -38.1% 24% -31.8%
15% -44.1% 23% -38.4%
20% -49.6% 22% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$2,333
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses156 / 385
Open positions15
Markets (closed)541 / 500
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day395.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 541 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $7 $20 +$13 (+201%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+168%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+163%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Yes 39¢ 84¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+117%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Yes 32¢ 66¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+105%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Yes 36¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+79%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 31¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? Yes 26¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 388 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 9? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 28? Jun 18 $0 +$5 +3205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 3? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 9? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 1? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 7? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on Jun Jun 18 $2 +$3 +139%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 10? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 9? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 10? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 2? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 2? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 25? Jun 18 $0 +$9 +44222%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 7? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 18 $1 −$6 -713%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 1? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 18 $10 −$8 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 6? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 31h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 40¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 32h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.32 · official $50.32 (match) · 3500 history records