Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8B 0x8bce…4d5c world 12 markets active 5d ago coverage 393d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$620 (-16%) realized −$620 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$329per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$437
14 days+$361
30 days+$361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$672
politics 29% −$1,100
other 8% −$194
sports 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -59.9% -63.7% 0% 0% -74.5%
≤30d 7 -19.9% -27.5% 14% 14% +10.8%
≤90d 11 -3.7% -12.8% 18% 18% -21.9%
all 12 -11.5% -19.9% 17% 17% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 17% -24.1%
10% -27.6% 17% -31.4%
15% -34.6% 17% -38.0%
20% -41.0% 17% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$667 vs −$196 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

393d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$620
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage393d
Avg bet$329
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 16 $100 −$97 -97%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 −$4 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $261 −$239 -92%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $498 +$1,035 +208%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $498 −$237 -48%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $100 +$299 +299%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 26 $600 −$171 -29%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 26 $500 −$15 -3%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Mar 25 $1,034 −$1,003 -97%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 03 $100 −$98 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 5d
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes $83 5d
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes $8 5d
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes $8 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 24¢ $100 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $49 6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $49 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $53 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $22 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $200 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $57 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $261 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $498 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $498 13d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 96¢ $399 75d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 24¢ $100 87d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 87d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $485 87d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $429 87d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $500 89d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $500 89d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $34 383d
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr SELL Yes $2 383d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes $31 383d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $900 388d
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr BUY Yes $100 395d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $100 398d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records