Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bd0…24a3 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,879 (-21%) realized −$421 · open −$2,458
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%5W / 19L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$438per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$632now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,999
7 days+$1,972
14 days+$975
30 days+$760
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$2,356
world 11% −$1,440
sports 8% +$1,410
politics 7% −$884
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +80.5% +63.3% 20% 20% +61.1%
≤30d 21 +46.8% +32.8% 19% 19% +5.0%
≤90d 21 +46.8% +32.8% 19% 19% +5.0%
all 24 +33.7% +21.0% 21% 21% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.0% 21% -17.0%
10% +9.4% 21% -24.9%
15% -1.2% 17% -32.2%
20% -10.9% 17% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -45% → late +112% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,112 vs −$335 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$632
Realized−$421
Unrealized−$2,458
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses5 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)24 / 31
History coverage150d
Avg bet$438
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 8¢ $1,140 $255 −$885 (-78%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $480 $190 −$290 (-60%)
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $1,000 $91 −$909 (-91%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $260 $77 −$183 (-71%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $108 $13 −$95 (-88%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $103 $7 −$96 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $201 +$2,669 +1329%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $101 +$1,031 +1017%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $201 −$201 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $227 −$227 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $243 −$240 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $257 −$250 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $307 +$188 +62%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $292 −$292 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $502 −$496 -99%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $511 +$1,410 +276%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,024 −$625 -61%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $514 −$500 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $514 −$500 -97%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 50+ times during the 2026 State Feb 25 $884 −$884 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 19 $950 −$950 -100%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 09 $2,005 +$261 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $95 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $632.14 · official $633.94 (match) · 562 history records