Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:02:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8B 0x8bd0…2d77 other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$154 (+25%) realized +$163 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$143
sports 8% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 50% +23.6%
≤30d 2 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 50% +23.6%
≤90d 2 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 50% +23.6%
all 2 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 50% +23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 50% +23.6%
10% -31.9% 50% +11.8%
15% -38.5% 50% +1.0%
20% -44.5% 50% -8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +37% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$50 · ×3.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.04 per $1 lost it wins $3.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized+$163
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $160 $161 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 76¢ 72¢ $167 $157 −$10 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $229 +$152 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 76¢ $168 23m
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 36¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $162 3h
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 95¢ $381 3h
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 56¢ $229 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.58 · official $318.58 (match) · 5 history records