Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bd2…dc43 crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-2%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 71% 43% -10.1%
≤30d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 71% 43% -10.1%
≤90d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 71% 43% -10.1%
all 7 +1.8% -7.9% 71% 43% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 43% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 43% -18.7%
15% -24.8% 29% -26.5%
20% -32.1% 14% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 0¢ 64¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 51¢ 36¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$4 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.52 · official $12.38 (match) · 37 history records