Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bd2…d867 crypto 419 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate85%357W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +2.6% -7.1% 97% 4% -7.5%
≤30d 73 +2.6% -7.1% 97% 4% -7.5%
≤90d 392 +0.5% -9.1% 86% 19% -9.2%
all 419 +0.1% -9.5% 85% 19% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 19% -10.1%
10% -18.1% 4% -18.7%
15% -26.0% 1% -26.6%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$26 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses357 / 62
Open positions0
Markets (closed)419 / 419
History coverage93d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 419 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $48 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $48 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET Jun 19 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 19 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET Jun 18 $46 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $46 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $46 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $44 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $43 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET Jun 18 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $43 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $42 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $48 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $48 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $48 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $48 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $47 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $47 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $46 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $46 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $46 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $46 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $45 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $44 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $43 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $43 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $43 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $31 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $13 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $44 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $43 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $43 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $42 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1056 history records