Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:43:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bd4…6eaf sports 455 markets active 2h ago coverage 634d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,029 (-9%) realized −$1,646 · open −$383
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%235W / 185L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$3,766now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$173
14 days−$290
30 days−$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$1,015
sports 41% −$842
world 9% +$103
politics 3% −$246
culture 1% −$90
tech 1% +$35
weather 0% −$13
crypto 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -19.3% -27.0% 46% 46% -24.3%
≤30d 78 -18.1% -25.9% 51% 50% -21.7%
≤90d 219 -15.1% -23.2% 49% 47% -28.2%
all 420 -6.7% -15.6% 56% 50% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 50% -17.8%
10% -23.7% 43% -25.6%
15% -31.0% 32% -32.8%
20% -37.8% 22% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$25 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

634d coverage
Net worth$3,766
Realized−$1,646
Unrealized−$383
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses235 / 185
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions35
Markets (closed)420 / 455
History coverage634d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $542 $643 +$101 (+19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $540 $463 −$77 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $383 $426 +$43 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $309 $399 +$90 (+29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $288 $250 −$39 (-13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $199 $227 +$28 (+14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $288 $209 −$79 (-27%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 62¢ 40¢ $251 $159 −$92 (-36%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 94¢ $100 $151 +$51 (+51%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 94¢ $49 $75 +$26 (+53%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 92¢ $55 $74 +$19 (+34%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $52 $60 +$8 (+16%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 86¢ $55 $60 +$5 (+10%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 96¢ $52 $57 +$6 (+11%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 21¢ 11¢ $105 $56 −$49 (-46%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 72¢ $50 $53 +$2 (+4%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-5%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-14%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 42¢ $50 $33 −$16 (-33%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 67¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 69¢ 18¢ $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 +$5 +90%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 +$5 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$16 +32%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $30 +$13 +44%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 +$32 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$41 +134%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$15 +97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 +$11 +36%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $78 +$53 +69%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$26 +86%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$18 +174%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $66 +$30 +45%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 +$14 +47%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +27%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $30 +$12 +39%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $42 +$18 +44%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 67¢ $30 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 25h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $5 25h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $5 25h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $10 25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $30 25h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $30 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $30 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $30 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,765.69 · official $3,765.69 (match) · 1458 history records