Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

8B 0x8bd4…233b politics 15 markets active 11h ago coverage 85d

TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate7%1W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$108per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$0

14 days+$0

30 days−$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+0.1%	-9.5%	100%	0%	-9.5%
≤30d	4	-0.0%	-9.5%	25%	0%	-9.5%
≤90d	14	-0.0%	-9.5%	7%	0%	-9.5%
all	14	-0.0%	-9.5%	7%	0%	-9.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.5%	0%	-9.5%
10%	-18.2%	0%	-18.2%
15%	-26.1%	0%	-26.1%
20%	-33.3%	0%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -0% → late -0% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.17 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage

Net worth$107

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)7%

Wins / losses1 / 13

Open positions1

Markets (closed)14 / 15

History coverage85d

Avg bet$108

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	99¢	99¢	$107	$107	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 10	$107	$0	+0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	May 29	$107	$0	-0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	May 27	$107	$0	-0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	May 21	$107	$0	-0%
Trump out as President by May 31?	May 16	$107	$0	+0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?	May 14	$107	$0	-0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?	May 13	$107	$0	-0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	May 11	$107	$0	-0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	May 07	$108	$0	-0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Apr 17	$109	$0	+0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Apr 14	$109	$0	+0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Apr 12	$109	$0	+0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Apr 01	$109	$0	+0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Mar 24	$109	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	99¢	$107	11h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	99¢	$107	6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	99¢	$107	8d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$107	18d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$107	19d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$107	20d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$107	21d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$107	27d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$107	28d
Trump out as President by May 31?	SELL No	100¢	$107	31d
Trump out as President by May 31?	BUY No	100¢	$107	32d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?	SELL No	99¢	$107	34d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?	BUY No	99¢	$107	34d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$107	35d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$107	35d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL No	99¢	$107	36d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	99¢	$6	37d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	99¢	$58	37d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	99¢	$43	37d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL No	99¢	$108	41d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	99¢	$108	41d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$109	60d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$109	61d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$109	63d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$109	63d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	98¢	$109	66d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	98¢	$109	66d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$109	76d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$109	77d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$109	84d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.45 · official $107.45 (match) · 44 history records