Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8bd8…f306
sports · 348 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$8,989 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9,116 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,227
Realized−$9,116
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses151 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$3,472
Open positions33
Markets (closed)316 / 348
History coverage117d
Avg bet$783
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 33 History 316 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days+$30
14 days−$3,943
30 days−$3,925
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 30¢ 30¢ $600 $590 −$10 (-2%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 42¢ 94¢ $20 $45 +$25 (+125%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 43¢ 92¢ $20 $43 +$23 (+115%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 54¢ 52¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 53¢ 92¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+73%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 78¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+54%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 57¢ 88¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+54%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 54¢ 76¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+42%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Over 55¢ 76¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+39%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ 88¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+26%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 51¢ 64¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 54¢ 56¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 54¢ 54¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 43¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 34¢ 34¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 54¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 46¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 53¢ 49¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 42¢ 28¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $20 +$3 +14%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $20 +$26 +129%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $20 +$25 +124%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 +$34 +166%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $20 +$21 +101%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 +$21 +101%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 +$17 +83%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $20 +$10 +48%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $20 +$13 +62%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 +$6 +29%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 +$18 +90%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 +$19 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 +$21 +105%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 +$22 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $20 +$15 +76%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $20 +$30 +146%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $20 +$17 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $20 +$17 +86%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $20 +$19 +93%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $20 +$21 +105%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $20 +$22 +109%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $20 +$22 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $20 +$5 +23%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$56 +109%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 08 $29 +$8 +27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 05 $2,600 −$2,600 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 69% −$18,162
other 30% +$12,009
world 1% −$2,980
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 54¢ $20 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $20 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 41¢ $20 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $20 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 56¢ $20 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $20 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $20 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 53¢ $20 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 51¢ $20 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $20 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 41¢ $20 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 42¢ $20 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 54¢ $20 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $20 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $20 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $20 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 66¢ $20 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -1.3% -10.7% 53% 53% -6.9%
≤30d 56 +4.0% -5.9% 54% 54% -48.7%
≤90d 235 -2.3% -11.6% 49% 37% -9.8%
all 316 -2.2% -11.5% 48% 39% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 39% -12.6%
10% -20.0% 34% -20.9%
15% ← realistic here -27.7% 30% -28.6%
20% -34.8% 26% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,226.93 · official $1,248.31 · 3500 history records