Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:44:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8B 0x8bd9…f0f2 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-3%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$30
sports 18% +$11
culture 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 26 -7.6% -16.4% 54% 54% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 54% -12.9%
10% -24.4% 35% -21.2%
15% -31.7% 23% -28.8%
20% -38.4% 23% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage158d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $3 +$10 +334%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $15 +$2 +12%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 4.5 Jan 25 $10 −$10 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 25 $10 +$2 +19%
Fulham FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 25 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Qairat FK win on 2026-01-20? Jan 22 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-01-15? Jan 16 $10 +$3 +30%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-15? Jan 16 $10 +$15 +150%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-15? Jan 16 $34 +$7 +20%
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 Jan 14 $15 +$12 +82%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-01-13? Jan 14 $11 +$3 +24%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5 Jan 14 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-01-13? Jan 13 $12 +$10 +85%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-01-13? Jan 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Al Okhdood SC win on 2026-01-13? Jan 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-01-12? Jan 13 $10 +$13 +133%
Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 Jan 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hamnet be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jan 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil Jan 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $29 1h
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $13 95d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 144d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 144d
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-01-24? BUY No 53¢ $14 145d
AFC Bournemouth vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $10 145d
Fulham FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $10 145d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 149d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 149d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-20? BUY No 88¢ $20 149d
Will Qairat FK win on 2026-01-20? BUY No 88¢ $20 149d
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 11¢ $1 152d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 23¢ $3 152d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 152d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $34 154d
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-01-15? BUY No 77¢ $10 154d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 154d
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $15 155d
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 156d
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-01-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 156d
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-01-13? BUY No 81¢ $11 156d
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-01-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $12 156d
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-01-13? BUY Yes 79¢ $15 156d
Will Al Okhdood SC win on 2026-01-13? BUY No 69¢ $10 156d
Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $1 157d
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-01-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 157d
Will Hamnet be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No $1 157d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes $1 157d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil BUY No $2 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.17 · official $29.17 (match) · 41 history records