Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:07:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bdd…0302 crypto 841 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$573 (+15%) realized +$564 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate15%128W / 712L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$593
7 days+$500
14 days+$484
30 days+$484
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$500
other 22% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +62.9% +47.4% 22% 22% +35.4%
≤30d 78 +42.1% +28.5% 19% 19% +32.5%
≤90d 838 -12.9% -21.2% 15% 14% -7.3%
all 840 -10.8% -19.3% 15% 14% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 14% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 14% -14.2%
15% -34.0% 13% -22.5%
20% -40.5% 12% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$3 · ×6.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized+$564
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses128 / 712
Open positions1
Markets (closed)840 / 841
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 840 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $270 $279 +$9 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $253 +$170 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 +$98 +64%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$297 +2682%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +185%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$3 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$101 +3317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $274 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $423 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $253 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $152 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.62 · official $278.62 (match) · 3500 history records