Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:04:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8B 0x8be1…5731 other 729 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,781 (+0%) realized +$2,059 · open −$278
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%709W / 18L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$641per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$341
14 days+$1,341
30 days+$1,983
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$614
politics 27% +$313
world 16% +$434
sports 12% +$106
culture 3% +$35
tech 3% +$21
finance 1% +$6
weather 1% +$6
economics 0% +$31
crypto 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 173 +0.5% -9.1% 99% 1% -9.3%
≤30d 703 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 1% -9.1%
≤90d 727 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 1% -9.2%
all 727 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 1% -9.2%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -26.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$39 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.82 per $1 lost it wins $3.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$338
Realized+$2,059
Unrealized−$278
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses709 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)727 / 729
History coverage56d
Avg bet$641
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 727 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 100¢ 90¢ $242 $219 −$24 (-10%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? No 99¢ 32¢ $374 $119 −$255 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $7,574 +$7 +0%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 22 $158 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "FIFA" this week? Jun 22 $149 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Bipartisan" this week? Jun 22 $109 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Cognitive" this week? Jun 22 $126 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Knicks" this week? Jun 22 $81 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Too Big To Rig" this week? Jun 22 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Soccer" this week? Jun 22 $116 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Czar" this week? Jun 22 $83 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Football" this week? Jun 22 $89 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $5,888 +$12 +0%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica Jun 21 $120 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF Jun 21 $207 +$1 +1%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Germany vs Ivory Coas Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $10,509 +$21 +0%
Will MrBeast say "Day" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 21 $63 +$8 +12%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl Jun 20 $68 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Jun 20 $124 $0 +0%
Will Sungjae Im make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Kurt Kitayama make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Keegan Bradley make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $60 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Czechia vs South Africa F Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 18 $186 +$19 +10%
Will SCOTUS let drug users own guns? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF Jun 18 $387 +$18 +5%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? Jun 18 $1,493 +$3 +0%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Czechia vs South Africa Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $55 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "History" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Paper Tiger" during G7 events? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 18 $853 +$1 +0%
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 18 $850 +$1 +0%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 18 $850 +$1 +0%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 18 $850 +$1 +0%
Will the announcers say "Offside" or "Offsides" 10+ times during the E Jun 18 $799 +$1 +0%
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 18 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the announcers say "Love" or "Lovely" during the England vs Croat Jun 18 $929 +$1 +0%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 18 $799 +$1 +0%
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? Jun 18 $4,086 +$4 +0%
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will "California" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stan Jun 18 $719 +$1 +0%
Will "Texas" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod Jun 18 $719 +$1 +0%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? Jun 18 $1,203 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $2,865 +$3 +0%
Will Warsh say "All-Time High" or "All-Time Low" during June Press Con Jun 17 $242 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $288 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $86 1h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 100¢ $242 2h
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $158 2h
Starmer out by June 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7,574 2h
Will Trump say "Cognitive" this week? BUY No 100¢ $126 2h
Will Trump say "Bipartisan" this week? BUY No 100¢ $109 2h
Will Trump say "Football" this week? BUY No 100¢ $89 2h
Will Trump say "Soccer" this week? BUY No 100¢ $116 2h
Will Trump say "FIFA" this week? BUY No 100¢ $149 2h
Will Trump say "Too Big To Rig" this week? BUY No 100¢ $48 3h
Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Czar" this week? BUY No 100¢ $83 3h
Will Trump say "Knicks" this week? BUY No 100¢ $81 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,888 19h
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF BUY No 99¢ $207 19h
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Germany vs Ivory Coas BUY No 100¢ $25 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $573 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $798 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,495 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,544 19h
Will MrBeast say "Day" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY Yes 90¢ $41 19h
Will MrBeast say "Day" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY Yes 86¢ $22 19h
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica BUY Yes 100¢ $120 20h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World BUY Yes 100¢ $124 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.13 · official $338.13 (match) · 1936 history records