Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:20:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8be4…b795 crypto 125 markets active 1d ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27,068 (-8%) realized −$27,068 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate42%52W / 73L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,693per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$625est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,000
7 days−$1,974
14 days+$18,996
30 days−$6,800
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$9,315
other 16% −$16,879
sports 9% +$10,079
economics 4% −$13,600
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -57.6% -61.6% 14% 14% -28.2%
≤30d 45 -5.4% -14.4% 27% 27% -17.1%
≤90d 100 -9.1% -17.7% 47% 33% -13.4%
all 125 -19.8% -27.4% 42% 30% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.4% 30% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -34.4% 21% -25.4%
15% -40.7% 17% -32.7%
20% -46.5% 16% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$2,535) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,558 vs −$1,517 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27,068
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses52 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$625
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage204d
Avg bet$2,693
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions (67 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,036 −$2,000 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,550 +$5,026 +197%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,535 +$2,182 +86%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,540 +$2,894 +114%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,023 +$3,144 +307%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $2,546 −$2,500 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $2,532 −$2,500 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $2,542 −$2,500 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,551 −$2,500 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,549 −$2,500 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,522 +$4,678 +307%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,481 +$3,519 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,680 +$5,459 +325%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,126 −$1,100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $880 −$857 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,036 −$1,011 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,451 +$5,825 +238%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,649 +$6,951 +262%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $309 −$300 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $560 −$545 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,047 +$4,631 +442%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,103 −$1,078 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,452 −$1,421 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,841 −$2,786 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,510 +$4,398 +291%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,460 −$2,407 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,510 −$1,477 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,116 −$1,089 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,443 −$1,410 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,436 +$3,585 +250%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1,047 −$1,022 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,305 −$2,254 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $2,803 −$2,745 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,119 −$1,093 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5,253 −$5,151 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $4,947 −$4,848 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,764 −$1,718 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $3,358 −$3,280 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 13 $5,032 +$478 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $10,098 −$10,000 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? May 12 $14,142 +$2,327 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? May 12 $5,032 +$476 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? May 11 $12,585 +$1,270 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 43¢ $1,017 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 18¢ $1,025 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 18¢ $1,025 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $1,018 45h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 21¢ $1,024 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $2,036 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $2,550 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 53¢ $2,535 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $2,546 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 46¢ $2,540 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $1,021 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $1,023 11d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $1,021 11d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 57¢ $2,532 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $2,542 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $2,551 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $2,549 11d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,126 12d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,481 12d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $880 12d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,680 12d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,036 12d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,522 12d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $309 13d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $560 13d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,103 14d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,452 14d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $2,451 14d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2,841 14d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2,460 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 248 history records