Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8be6…f3b3 world 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%19W / 36L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$9
other 20% $0
politics 18% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 20% 20% -9.0%
≤30d 24 +2.1% -7.6% 42% 8% -8.4%
≤90d 24 +2.1% -7.6% 42% 8% -8.4%
all 55 +0.7% -8.9% 35% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -8.8%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.01 per $1 lost it wins $8.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses19 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage325d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $30 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $48 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $86 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $21 +$2 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $35 +$5 +14%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 +9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $25 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $1 $0 -6%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 20 $2 $0 -4%
FDA approves UX111? Aug 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Brian Campbell be the first round leader at the 2025 FedEx St. Ju Aug 10 $53 $0 +1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 08 $10 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 07 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $30 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $40 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $40 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $48 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $48 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $21 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $48 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $48 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.67 · official $41.67 (match) · 194 history records