Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:18:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8B 0x8bec…ad9e world 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$737 (+59%) realized +$737 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +133% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +111% what you keep after slip
Net edge+111%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$916
30 days+$764
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$192
other 34% +$912
world 17% +$10
culture 6% −$2
politics 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+111.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +203.3% +174.4% 33% 33% +87.4%
≤90d 13 +133.2% +111.0% 38% 23% +32.3%
all 13 +133.2% +111.0% 38% 23% +32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +111.0% 23% +32.3%
10% +90.8% 8% +19.7%
15% +72.3% 8% +8.1%
20% +55.4% 8% -2.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +133% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +276% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$49 · ×3.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.7 per $1 lost it wins $4.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$737
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage75d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 24 $67 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $65 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? Jun 17 $29 +$4 +14%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 11 $38 +$912 +2400%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $54 +$10 +18%
Spread: Armenia (-2.5) Jun 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $78 −$2 -2%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 02 $80 −$80 -100%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 02 $80 $0 +0%
Spread: Gaziantep FK (-2.5) Apr 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Spread: Pisa SC (-1.5) Apr 11 $308 +$4 +1%
Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026? Apr 10 $306 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL No $34 1h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL No $34 1h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY No $34 2h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY No $34 2h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $32 4h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $33 4h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $33 5h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $32 5h
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? SELL Yes $17 7d
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? SELL Yes $16 7d
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? BUY Yes $15 7d
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? BUY Yes $14 7d
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY Yes $18 14d
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY Yes $20 14d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $29 14d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $35 14d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $28 14d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $27 14d
Spread: Armenia (-2.5) BUY Armenia $40 18d
Spread: Armenia (-2.5) BUY Armenia $40 18d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes $38 18d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes $39 18d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes $38 18d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes $40 18d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana $40 22d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana $40 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL Yes $39 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL Yes $40 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY Yes $16 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY Yes $24 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records