Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bed…85b8 crypto 722 markets active 0h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,334 (-12%) realized −$3,332 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%307W / 413L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$2,792
14 days−$2,828
30 days−$2,965
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$1,214
other 35% −$3,507
sports 8% +$1,129
world 2% −$449
politics 0% −$10
culture 0% −$4
tech 0% −$56
economics 0% −$26
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -9.1% -17.7% 34% 30% -28.4%
≤30d 206 -5.4% -14.4% 41% 40% -27.2%
≤90d 206 -5.4% -14.4% 41% 40% -27.2%
all 720 -9.7% -18.3% 43% 38% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 38% -23.4%
10% -26.1% 32% -30.7%
15% -33.3% 25% -37.4%
20% -39.8% 19% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$25 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized−$3,332
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses307 / 413
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)720 / 722
History coverage306d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 720 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 81¢ 80¢ $390 $388 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 377 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $458 −$133 -29%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $305 +$320 +105%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $201 +$30 +15%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $307 −$300 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,097 −$1,004 -92%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $906 +$972 +107%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $761 −$545 -72%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,110 +$228 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$40 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$241 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $507 −$441 -87%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $346 −$340 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $506 −$281 -56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,015 −$2,010 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$11 -35%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$175 +86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $501 +$37 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $563 +$628 +112%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$4 -25%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$28 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $524 +$112 +21%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $8 +$4 +54%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$16 +1519%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$14 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 31¢ $324 10m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 81¢ $392 54m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 56m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $152 57m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $102 13h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 14h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $305 45h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $231 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 19¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $93 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $72 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $1,878 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $205 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $906 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $43 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $96 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $660 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $455 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $393.08 · official $397.90 · 2714 history records