Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:43:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bed…e6d2 weather 644 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,907 (+2%) realized +$2,967 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate92%590W / 51L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day84.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3,132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$497
7 days+$1,150
14 days+$1,404
30 days+$1,573
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 63% +$598
other 17% +$612
sports 17% +$486
world 2% +$16
politics 1% +$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 +0.5% -9.1% 92% 9% -7.7%
≤30d 510 -1.2% -10.6% 92% 8% -8.2%
≤90d 641 -1.6% -11.0% 92% 7% -8.3%
all 641 -1.6% -11.0% 92% 7% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 7% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 2% -17.1%
15% -27.3% 1% -25.1%
20% -34.4% 1% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$28 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$3,132
Realized+$2,967
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses590 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions8
Markets (closed)641 / 644
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$204
Trades / day84.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 641 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Under 98¢ 95¢ $2,000 $1,939 −$61 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? No 98¢ 98¢ $762 $759 −$3 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $185 $186 +$1 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 93¢ 100¢ $93 $100 +$7 (+7%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 18¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
76ers vs. Wizards Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 25? Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 14? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on April 6? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Marc Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $301 +$19 +6%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $72 +$1 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $44 +$6 +14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $130 +$10 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $50 +$2 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 $0 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $60 +$1 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $56 +$1 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $73 +$1 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $386 +$15 +4%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $2,115 +$21 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $201 +$24 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 17 $30 +$11 +36%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $2,927 +$26 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $13 +$2 +12%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $2,171 +$10 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on June Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $612 +$31 +5%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $2,492 +$42 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $201 +$22 +11%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $136 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $73 +$8 +11%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2,126 +$25 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +1%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ shots Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $801 +$29 +4%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $199 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $423 +$10 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $70 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $79 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1,995 +$21 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $386 +$37 +10%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,376 +$41 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $234 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $208 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1,406 +$234 +17%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $386 +$31 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $182 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 98¢ $762 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 93¢ $93 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 98¢ $2,001 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 94¢ $301 13h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? BUY No 99¢ $72 13h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $15 13h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $109 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $185 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $25 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $44 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $57 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $75 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Under 100¢ $402 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $964 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 96¢ $48 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 96¢ $52 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 96¢ $96 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 96¢ $21 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 95¢ $70 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 97¢ $50 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 96¢ $50 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $650 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $500 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 98¢ $30 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 97¢ $50 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 98¢ $6 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $55 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $18 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,131.68 · official $3,131.68 (match) · 3500 history records