Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:19:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8bf0…78da politics 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% $0
world 24% −$4
other 14% $0
weather 9% +$1
tech 8% $0
sports 8% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -0.9% -10.4% 20% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 5 -0.9% -10.4% 20% 0% -10.4%
all 33 +0.5% -9.1% 21% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -9.9%
10% -17.8% 3% -18.6%
15% -25.7% 3% -26.4%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage322d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 84¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $27 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $27 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $28 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $28 −$1 -3%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $11 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Sep 02 $28 −$3 -9%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on August 6? Aug 10 $46 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 08 $2 $0 -10%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? Aug 08 $17 $0 -1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 07 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025? Aug 06 $2 +$1 +38%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $28 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $1 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $26 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $27 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $27 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $27 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $1 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $26 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $28 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $31 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $31 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $28 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $28 29d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 284d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 313d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 313d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 313d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 313d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 313d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 313d
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $23 313d
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $23 314d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 314d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 314d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 314d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 314d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 314d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 314d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 314d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 314d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.72 · official $27.72 (match) · 102 history records